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Paper submission

  Use of Natural Resources and Mahdism Doctrine (Some micro foundations)

Dr. Syed Nisar Hussain Hamdani

Source : Scientific Committee of the International Conference of Mahdism Doctrine

Introduction
The economics of religion is gradually attracting economists’ interest. Now some economists are found to believe that religious activities are also based on economic rationality; otherwise, these could not have been undertaken. According to a study in 1998, about 200 papers on economics of religion were available written by economists and other social scientists (Iannacconne, 1998).

Although Adam Smith wrote on importance of religion in his economics, yet very significant contribution on this subject appears to be of Christian and other economists such as Azzi and Ehrenberg (1975) and Iannaccone 1984, 1988, 1990, and later.

Some other studies such as Mack and Leigland (1982), Barro 2003 also created intellectual curiosity leading to subsequent research in this filed till recently when a formal framework titled ‘Divine Economics’ appeared in early 2000.
Although, no work yet seems to be available directly about the use of natural resources in perspective of religiosity levels among individual households or community.

However, the viewpoint of the economists who worked with reference to religion guides one to realize that there might exist a systematic relationship between religiosity and use of natural resources.

As according to such economists, all the activities are chosen in the same way as people choose other commodities of choice in order to gain utility. Iannaccone (1990) states that “The neoclassical account of self-interested, gain-seeking individuals is incapable of describing the behavior of Christians who are trying to live according to the stewardship principle.

Furthermore, since all humans are created in the image of God, and hence are by their very nature religious and moral beings, the neoclassical model fails to capture an essential dimension of human behavior.”

Individuals are endowed by nature with the instincts to serve their self-interests, which may or may not be in conformity with societal interests at large. It is not difficult to see that many things individuals do are the result of self-interest. This behavior leads to efficient allocation of resources. Chapra (1992) notes that any efforts to prevent an individual from serving self-interest, is bound to fail.

However, individuals are motivated by family and fellow companions or other factors that their self-interests make allowance for the interest of others’ too [Schwartz (1966) and Zaman (1992)]. This type of belief may result in restructuring of resource allocations in such a way that social interest becomes possible to be served along with self-interest.

In religious societies, such altruistic behavior is common. In a truly religious society, the amount of contribution for other person’s utility may be affected by many factors including the following: a) high degree of faith in afterlife may reduce self-centered consumption making room for sharing with others, b) Religious teachings and temptations for kind and caring attitude can lead to higher level of time and monetary contributions for others. These ideas have been dealt in economics of religion and particularly in Divine Economics.

A step further is to explore whether religiosity or a particular type of religiosity plays any role in management of natural resources, such as water when it is scarce? Because in times of scarcity peoples selfish motives may become more stronger than their altruistic motives.

The objectives of the present paper are 1) To further extend the faith-based analytical framework of natural resource use, 2) To analyze one of the predicted problems before the appearance of Imam Mahdi, that is water scarcity and elaborate the a model of individual behavior in this context, 3) To modify and extend the empirical model for future analysis of interrelationships among religiosity and natural resource use behavior, and 4) To explore how closely the Mahdvi doctrine affects the theoretical basis as well as practical aspects of natural resource use patterns.

Are Natural Resources Scarce?
The answer to this question is ‘No’ if considered in the divine sense. That is, the resources are created according to all the needs of human beings as well all other creatures. However, if these are not used as ordained or if distributed unjustly, theses may appear to be deficient.

It is now consensually recognized that the human population is growing at an exponential rate (a J-shape curve), therefore, within a few centuries the earth shall be full by human beings. In 2000, the world population was 6.2 billion. The UN estimates show that by 2050, a 3 billion people will be added. This raises big question; does the earth has that much carrying capacity?


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.
Some social and other scientists think that carrying capacity is not enough to host so much people on earth. There is another category of scholars (for example, see Julian Simon) who believe that more people will provide more innovative skills for larger global outputs. Cohen (1995) suggests three possible solutions:
1. Increase human productive capacities through technology and innovation
2. Reduce numbers and expectations of people through such means as family planning and vegetarian diets
3. Change the terms of people’s interactions through improved planning and government to enhance social justice.

This was however, a contemporary view. In religious resources, particularly those relating to Mahdism doctrine, a number of signs (problems, disasters etc) have been predicted that will appear before the appearance of the Imam or second coming of Jesus. It can also be found from the religious literature that at least some of these problems can be solved by promoting the prescribed supplications and other acts. For the purpose of explanation, we take the example of water crises or water stress predicted to happen before the appearance of Imam Mahdi (May God Hasten his appearance).

Water Crisis
Water crisis is one of the most alarming concerns mentioned both in contemporary sciences and in Mahdvi literature. It indicates a time when available water on earth will not be sufficient to fulfill the life needs on earth. ‘The Earth has a finite supply of fresh water, stored in aquifers, surface waters and the atmosphere’. The water available in oceans to potable water but it requires resources beyond reach which also have been predicted in religious literature.

The water crisis is likely to cause wars and violence in some parts of the world. Thomas Homer-Dixon (1999) has quantitatively proved a correlation between ‘water scarcity and scarcity of available arable lands to an increased chance of violent conflict’. A report indicates that countries which rely heavily on water for irrigation, such as China, India, Iran, and Pakistan, are particularly at risk of water-related conflicts.

Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue (2002) reports that “Water is our most precious resource and sustains all life on earth. Yet there is now no doubt that this lifeline is no longer assured for future generations, and it is generally thought that a global water crisis is imminent. Already, many countries are suffering from shortages of water or degraded water quality.

In addition, it is clear that the present practices of humans are damaging our freshwater ecosystems and reducing biodiversity. If these practices continue, the future of life on earth will be threatened. They further mention from the World Water Vision Commission Report that ‘The world is now beginning to feel the first pangs of a more chronic and systemic water crisis’. Keeping in view the severity of the water crises, and its predictions in Mahdvi doctrine, a deeper look and a formal analytical framework for further research on this subject seems to be justified for inclusion in the divine economics and also is the need of the time.

What is Divine Economics?
The Divine Economics is a recently developed framework to study economics and religion in each other’s perspective using scientific process. It comprises of theoretical model, empirical work, a series of papers and some survey instruments.

It is similar to conventional economics because is based on rational choice theory but departs from it by incorporating religion in the model. Hence it becomes similar to the economics of religion.

However is different from that also because substantial work in the economics of religion is done under the Christian and Jewish religions ignoring Islam. Hence, this aspect makes it closer to Islamic economics but it differs from Islamic economics on the basis of sources of jurisprudence; the mainstream Islamic economics is constructed over Sunnite school of thought lead by Imam Abu Hanifa, Imam Taimia, Ibne Khuldoon, Abu Yousaf, Imam Shatibi, Imam Ghazali, Shah Waliullah, etc ignoring almost all of the 12 Imams from the family of the Holy Prophet (Imams of AhleBayt).

On the contrary, the Divine Economics takes a comparative view of both of the schools of Islamic thoughts.


The Doctrine of Mahdism and Microfoundations for NRM
The doctrine of Mahdism is known both as a belief, concept or philosophy and as (The Encyclopedia of Religion), 'tenet', 'teaching', and 'dogma'. or a practical futuristic aspect of Islam
Despite the difference between two main branches of Islam i.e. Sunnites and Shiites on Caliphate, the faith in Mahdism remains almost the same in both schools, and it also conforms with the concept of a savior in other religion . (,,,,,,) has noted that “It is in conformity with 'Soteriology', 'Salvation', and 'Millenarianism', presented in other religions.

The notion of salvation and Mahdvi global government are the matter of concordance among the whole Islamic sects, and their authentic books of traditions, such as Sihah al-Sittah ("Six Correct Books"), refer to them under four titles: 1. Al-Mahdi's Book; 2. Al-Fitan Chapter ("The Calamities"); 3. Al-Malahem Chapter ("The Disturbances"); 4. Ashrat al-Sa`ah ("The signs of the End Times").

Although there may exist some slight differences among the Islamic sects on the conditions of Mahdism, yet none of them feel doubt about its principals and certainty”. This indicates the significance of this doctrine. It’s believed that social and individual problems can be solved with the help of this doctrine. The rapidly growing unrest on the earth is creating a rapid demand for a change that may promote, truth, justice, love, peace and compassion, which according to the believers of the doctrine, is possible only under the rule of a perfect leadership which shall be available in the era of the Hidden Imam.

Since, from the point of view of those who perceive in some sort of a savior, or who wait for second coming of Jesus or who clearly believe in Mahdi’s appearance, a righteous path, the path of the Prophets, the path of monotheism and the path of global justice, would be the path that goes through the doctrine of a savior.

This provides a theoretical justification why the doctrine of any savior can not be neglected in any impartial social research. Therefore, a researcher can derive a religiosity indicator from one’s love and devotion to the cause of savior.

In particular, since Muslims believe in appearance of Imam Mahdvi because of the outcomes of his appearance, therefore, in the list of Islamic religiosity indices, there has to be another set of indices which originates from the Mahdvi perspective. For example, there is complete consensus in both major schools of Islamic thoughts that Mahdi’s purpose (and achievement) will be, “...Implementing the laws of Islam, establishing justice and fighting heresy and oppression” then an individual shall be classified as more religious if, among other good deeds, he also has deeper devotion with these acts.

The Mahdvi perspective enters into the analytical discussion from three dimensions; one, for believers of Mahdism, natural resource use patterns of individuals and communities demand for obeying the Islamic principles of justice, benevolence, sacrifice, economy simplicity. Two, before the re-appearance of Imam Mahdi, a terrible era of disasters, violence, and destruction has to pass when among other things, safe water and other natural resources shall be very scarce and according to believers, shall be restored during Imam’s era. Three, the economists, scholars and others who don’t believe in the doctrine of Mahdism, perhaps can hardly avoid studying how any such perception about future affects the present day decisions.

Therefore, in perspective of Mahdism doctrine, an alternate theoretical model for analyzing natural resource use can be thought of logically. It would emerge from some issues usually neglected by the conventional economics and propositions offered by the divine economics (Hamdani, 2002, Hamdani and Ahmad 2002).
- Water is a natural public good, and as with all public goods there tend to be unequal distribution in the end.
- Normally the cost of extraction is taken as the cost of production and forgets that nature had planned to offer its treasures for all the humankind and not only for the profits of those who could extract them, so pricing issues need to be reviewed.
- Keeping the above in mind, placing price mechanism for optimal and competitive use of water, which has no substitute at all, could be a bad mechanism, as normally price works for either non-essential items or in a substitutable economy.
- Religion provides that institutional mechanism (through self-accountability and fear of God) that cannot be ensured up to 100% vigilance for corruption except with a very hi-tech monitoring systems..
- It provides the necessary religious human capital required for optimal utilization of such natural public goods on which others are dependent as a necessary part of life.
- Religious human capital is that kind of Human capital which solves for the problems of social welfare which otherwise markets have failed to provide worldwide, both from the supply side and the demand side.

Any divine religion such as Islam makes its followers to believe that serving social interest also serves self-interest. To serve self-interest in the afterlife perspective means that individual has to please Allah through certain ordained actions that include, for example, serving the parents, teachers and neighbors, helping the needy, transferring knowledge to others and restraining from prohibited acts like theft, murder, and cheating etc.

In a truly religious society, a person does not live in social isolation and that his/her personal pleasure/displeasure and the pleasure/displeasure of others are mutually interdependent. In other words utility of one individual depends, among other things, on utility of some other person(s). This leads us to the following proposition.

Proposition 1:
Among religious people, others’ welfare is an argument in their own utility function. Hence other things held constant, less religious person will serve his/her self-interest in each market in less altruistic manner and a more religious person will serve his/her self-interest in each market in a less selfish manner.

Proposition 2:
Other things held constant, a more religious person will forego his/her own consumption to give proportionately more donations for enhancing others’ consumption, as compared to a less religious person. Moreover, the effects of a change in commodity prices and wage/income level on the monetary donations will be systematically different between more religious and less religious persons.

From the preceding discussion we conclude that it is very much ‘economic’ to remain social, voluntary actor, donor, honest and just in a society for one’s selfish and selfless interests and for economic and non-economic motives. If the conventional economic man who aims to maximize his/her pecuniary benefits, is replaced by the real man who aims to maximize pecuniary plus other (e.g. social spiritual) benefits, then both individual justice as well as social justice will become integral part of the consumer behavior for their implied economic rationality. And the individual’s objective function will coincide with the social or global welfare function, as is claimed to happen during the era of Imam Mahdi or the second coming of Jesus (Tabbassi, 2006).

Natural Resource Model (NRM) in Divine Economics
Hope for an afterlife reward (divinely promised benefits in heavens) is central to consumer behavior in divine religions including Islam. Some other religions too have similar belief. Some empirical studies indicate that people do various activities in the hope of afterlife consumption (see for example Azzi and Ehrenberg; 1975).

In particular religious and altruistic activities of individuals have some expected stream of benefits in an afterlife based on pattern of their lifetime allocation of time.

Since the model of a Muslim’s behavior who is to maximize his/her lifetime utility, where life means life here and hereafter through allocation of total time (24 hours a day), a rational individual will take ‘afterlife’ as a factor in economic decision making e.g. allocation of time and goods.

The Divine Economics postulates that such consideration of individual will result a systematic change in his/her economic choices, religious practices, social habits, personal thoughts, and conviction etc. which is likely to vary with individual’s religiosity level. Therefore, a more religious individual would be less likely to choose activities which are prohibited and abominable ones.

Hence under Divine Economics Model or ‘Faith Model’ individuals would be more likely to use natural resources in a way such that their acts are not harmful for other fellow human being, or nature. So the point of departure from conventional economics comes when a truly religious individual reveals not choosing using too much water even if it is abundant (Hadith of the Holy Prophet, PBUHAP).

Similarly he will not be polluting water even when nobody is watching his behavior (Nobody can be Muslim unless his fellows are safe from his verbal and physical acts – Hadith). The very famous event in Islamic history explains the behavior modeled in the divine economics that is when at the end of a battle, a number of companions of the prophet were about to die of thrust and a single glass of water was available, everyone passed it on to the next one to save him at the cost of own life. This is so because he has to choose acts of greater goodness much the same way as he chooses a commodity having greater utility in a given conditions. .

Extension in the Model with Mahdism Perspective
A model of natural resource use under Divine Economics has been presented by Hamdani 2007 and further elaborated in Hamdani and Freeman 2008 based on the above mentioned arguments. The model provides a general framework of natural resource use analysis that can be considered in perspective of Mahdism doctrine. The next section presents the modified empirical model.

The holy books of divine religions contain many commandments regarding the use of God’s blessings on earth. There are numerous references to water and related phenomena in the Divine books e.g. Qur'an and Bible such as the word "water" has been mentioned in Qumran 63 times. The other water related words river, fountains, springs, rain, hail, clouds also occur many times in these books causing an influence on the reader’s perception and behavior about water use.

As regards, use of natural resources, the following model for pedagogical purpose was presented in the aforementioned studies;
The Original Model: Wig =Water Scarcity level, Time cost, Religious human capital, Environment (technology, others’ behavior and infrastructure), other conventional economics variables}

This model can be modified and extended as under to incorporate the Mahdvi perspective.
The Mahdvi Model: Wi =Water Scarcity level, Time cost, Religious human capital, Environment (technology, others’ behavior and infrastructure), the knowledge about Mahdism, the attachment and devotion with Mahdism, other conventional economics variables}
A more elaborate functional relationship can be written as under;

Wi = f{Ta, wij, W, Tp, MPGS, B1, B2, SC, Q, C, E, MK, MD, Z}
Where Wi is the average consumption of water by ith individual including the water wasted or polluted by individual due to habits and attitudes. The variables used in this model are elaborated below much in the same way as defined in Hamdani (2007);

Ta = Productive Time available with the individual at particular place and time [Total time 24 hrs – committed (biologically needed) time for leisure, volunteering, home and religious activities]

wij = average water consumption need that depends on a number of socioeconomics, demographic and religious variables.

W = Total quantity of water in given space and time that is fixed in the religious sense of Takween and Tashreeh. In other words, it partly depends on Divine will and partly on human deeds, actions, knowledge (or discoveries, renewing formulae, industrial production) etc.

Tp = Time cost of using the water (see footnote above)
MPGS = Market purchased intermediate or final goods and services involved in consumption of water e.g

B1 = Belief that some sort of water-use is obligatory (Wajib) or desirable (Mustahab) and some other type of uses is strictly prohibited (haram) or at least un-desirable (Makrooh).

B2 = Knowledge and belief that donating water to a needy person is appreciable and wasting especially when it is so scarce to have life implication for some section of population is prohibited (haram) in Islam

Note’ ‘B1’ and B2 implies that price of water is less significant or in some cases insignificant.
SC = Level of spiritual capital i.e personal experience of, say, using legitimate water for ablution (wuzoo) has physical and spiritual benefits thus leading to more consumption of water whereas .

Q = Quality of fellow worshipers (truly religious, hypocritically religious, opportunistically religious, habitually religious, imitatively religious etc.)

C = Knowledge and understanding that religion requires from one to be altruist rather than being greedy and selfish.

E = Environmental factors such as quality of water or intensity of community problems to which non-wasteful or minimal usage behavior may contribute.

MK = Knowledge about Mahdism doctrine (situation before appearance of Mahdi or coming of Jesus, predicted disasters, water crises, wars and violence, earthquakes, accidental deaths, global unrest etc. and situation after the appearance of the saviors i.e. peace, justice, prosperity, and abundance of natural resources etc. as reported in religious books).

MD = Mahdvi devotedness (loving benefits of larger community, believing in justices, benevolence, sacrifice, self-accountability, contentment and other practical aspects of this doctrine).

Z = Other standard variables
For a better understanding of natural-resources-use patterns, the Divine Economics puts forward an example (Hamdani and Freeman 2008) that has been constructed with hypothetical data in table below.



MICRO AND MACRO INTERRELATIONSHIPS OF NATURAL RESOURCE (water) USE AND RELIGIOSITY IN DIVINE ECONOMICS (Hypothetical Data)
Decades Wa Wb wa+wb TW  SW  AW 
1900 1 2 3 10 0.1 9 0.10 8.1 0.37
1905 2 3 5 10 0.1 9 0.10 8.1 0.62
1910 3 4 7 10 0.1 9 0.10 8.1 0.86
*1915 3 4 7 10 0.2 8 0.10 7.2 0.97
1920 3 4 7 10 0.2 8 0.10 7.2 0.97
1925 3 4 7 10 0.2 8 0.10 7.2 0.97
#1930 3 4 7 15 0.2 12 0.10 10.8 0.65
1935 3 4 7 15 0.2 12 0.10 10.8 0.65
1940 3 4 7 15 0.2 12 0.10 10.8 0.65
^ **1945 6 8 14 20 0.3 14 0.10 12.6 1.11
^ 1950 4 5 9 30 0.3 21 0.68 6.72 1.34
2020 8 10 18 50 0.3 47.5 0.01 47.025 0.38
Source: Hamdani,Syed Nisar Hussain and Richard B. Freeman (2008), “Do People Systematically Differ in Natural Resource Usage Behavior?, (Some micro foundations)”, discussion draft, London School of Economics (Labor Markets)

Notes and Definitions:
A, b Individuals or households
wa , wb Average need of safe water by individual or household a and b respectively.
TW Total water produced in a space and time (around a, b) by Divine and human sources
 Percentage of total water that becomes unusable due to development and expansion (industrial and technological), wars, violence, explosions destruction of water supply systems etc; is determined, among others, by religiosity levels.
 Percentage of water that becomes unusable due to household activities, carelessness, and attitude; is determined, among others, by religiosity levels..
SW = (1-a)TW)
AW = wSW)
 Indicator of Scarcity of water as deviation from nature or intensity of difference from total water and available safe water. It is calculated as ratio of average water needed by 2 household a and b to safe water available for final use. And average consumption of each individual at time period t is dependent on his own average consumption need as well as others’ need and the total endowment of available safe water in given space and time. Φ = 1 if total safe water available within given space and time is equal to wa+wb; a case of no scarcity
f = (wa+wb)/AW

Assumptions If own need and other’s need is equal, then wa/wb = 1

For simplicity we assume that in a given space and time, household activities pollute 10 % water, industrial expansion pollutes 20 % water, wars and violence pollutes another 10 % and technological/nuclear advancement pollutes another 30% water.
* World war-1
** World war-2
# Total (Absolute) quantity of water may be increased by scientific developments
^ Total (Absolute) quantity of water may be increased by supplications, thanksgiving, and repentance on sins (see Qur'an and Bible)
^^ Total (Absolute) quantity of water may be increased by sadaqah (see Qur'an; see …in Bible)
Mahdvi religiosity applies to the last three notes above. It is observable among devoted ones in Mahdism that they pray a special form of prayer or Istighasa for solving this type of problems.

There are 12 general and specific phenomenon have been outlined in our earlier paper (Hamdani and Freeman, 2008) that can be explained under the Divine Economics Model of Natural Resource Management. Besides those, with the addition of Mahdism perspective in the model, the following behaviors can also be studied under this framework.

• The data used to elaborate the Divine Model of NRM is hypothetical. The next research can undertake the task of estimating true parameters of this model using the real world data.
• The relationship of natural resource use patterns with parameters indicating knowledge or devotedness with Mahdism doctrine.
• The Effects of Mahdism doctrine on sacrificing behavior of individuals during crises and disasters (A Harvard University research indicates that there exists a significant relationship between these two variables)

Concluding Remarks and the direction of future research

The present paper is a further extension in an earlier paper on religiosity and natural resource management (Hamdani and Freeman). It is advocated that, among other standard economic factors, religiosity also affects the pattern of natural resource use. As also explained in an earlier study (Hamdani and Freeman, 2008) that religiosity is likely to affect the behavior regarding use of natural resources.

The people with high religiosity have been observed avoiding water wastage, polluting public water, and creating other forms of negative externalities (as this has been condemned in religions). The present study postulates that this effect of religiosity is likely to be more stronger in the presence of the Mahdvi religiosity. Similarly that study also mentioned with reference to religious resources that supplications and sadaqah can result in increased water quantities.

The author is witness to more than hundreds of events when people prayed in a prescribed manner and soon after the pray finished, there was raining. The future research agenda can include data collection on these aspects and empirical analysis not because of proving the truths of religion with the help of empirics but providing the researchers and learners a ground for diverting some of their energies to the scientific study of religion.

Construction of religiosity with special reference to Mahdism doctrine is also a great job yet to be done. It is also need of the time to include special questions in national surveys about Mahdism where it may have an effect on human behaviors (as observed).

Supporting the earlier recommendations that ‘if justices, peace and fairness in use of water and other natural resources is considered to be a need of the globe these days, then investment in religious human capital seems to be a strong candidate for contemporary budget allocations’.

It is suggested that enough resources should be allocated for research and surveys that explore relationships between material and non-material variables and such as economic variables, religiosity, human values, futuristics and in particular, the belief in second coming of Jesus and appearance of Imam Mahdi (Ajj.).










Table 1. Growing Water Shortages
Population Size and Growth and Renewable Freshwater Availability in Water-Short Countries, 1995 and 2025
Country Population 1995
(millions) Water Per Capita 1995a Population 2025
(millions) Water Per Capita 2025a TFR 1998 % Growth Rate 1998
Water Scarcity in 1995 and/or 2025
Algeria 28.1 527 47.3 313 4.4 2.4
Bahrain 0.6 161 0.9 104 3.2 2.0
Barbados 0.3 192 0.3 169 1.7 0.5
Burundi 6.1 594 12.3 292 6.6 2.5
Cape Verde 0.4 777 0.7 442 5.3 2.9
Comoros 0.6 1,667 1.3 760 5.1 2.7
Cyprus 0.7 1,208 1.0 947 2.1 0.7
Egypt 62.1 936 95.8 607 3.6 2.2
Ethiopia 56.4 1,950 136.3 807 7.0 2.5
Haiti 7.1 1,544 12.5 879 4.8 2.1
Iran 68.4 1,719 128.3 916 3.0 1.8
Israel 5.5 389 8.0 270 2.9 1.5
Jordan 5.4 318 11.9 144 4.4 2.5
Kenya 27.2 1,112 50.2 602 4.5 2.0
Kuwait 1.7 95 2.9 55 3.2 2.3
Libya 5.4 111 12.9 47 6.3 3.7
Malawi 9.7 1,933 20.4 917 5.9 1.7
Malta 0.4 82 0.4 71 2.1 0.6
Morocco 26.5 1,131 39.9 751 3.3 1.8
Oman 2.2 874 6.5 295 7.1 3.9
Qatar 0.5 91 0.8 64 4.1 1.7
Rwanda 5.2 1,215 13.0 485 6.0 2.1
Saudi Arabia 18.3 249 42.4 107 6.4 3.1
Singapore 3.3 180 4.2 142 1.7 1.1
Somalia 9.5 1,422 23.7 570 7.0 3.2
South Africa 41.5 1,206 71.6 698 3.3 1.6
Tunisia 9.0 434 13.5 288 3.2 1.9
UAE 2.2 902 3.3 604 4.9 2.2
Yemen 15.0 346 39.6 131 7.3 3.3
Water Stress in 1995 and/or 2025
Afghanistan 19.7 2,543 45.3 1,105 6.1 2.5
Belgium 10.1 1,234 10.3 1,217 1.6 0.1
Burkina Faso 10.5 2,672 23.5 1,194 6.9 2.9
Eritrea 3.2 2,775 6.5 1,353 6.1 3.0
Ghana 17.3 3,068 36.3 1,464 5.5 2.9
India 929.0 2,244 1,330.2 1,567 3.4 1.9
Lebanon 3.0 1,854 4.4 1,261 2.3 1.6
Lesotho 2.0 2,565 4.0 1,290 4.3 2.1
Mauritius 1.1 1,970 1.5 1,485 2.0 1.0
Niger 9.2 3,552 22.4 1,452 7.4 3.4
Nigeria 111.7 2,506 238.4 1,175 6.5 3.0
Peru 23.5 1,700 35.5 1,126 3.5 2.2
Poland 38.6 1,458 40.0 1,406 1.6 0.1
South Korea 44.9 1,472 52.5 1,258 1.7 1.0
Tanzania 30.7 2,964 62.4 1,425 5.7 2.5
Togo 4.1 2,938 8.8 1,370 6.8 3.6
Uganda 19.7 3,352 45.0 1,467 6.9 2.7
UK 58.1 1,222 59.5 1,193 1.7 0.2
Zimbabwe 11.2 1,787 19.3 1,034 4.4 1.5
Water-stressed countries are those with annual water resources of between 1,000 and 1,700 cubic meters per person, shown in italic. Countries suffering from water scarcity are those with annual supplies of less than 1,000 cubic meters per person, shown in dark type.
TFR = Total Fertility Rate
aIn cubic meters per year
Source: Gardner-Outlaw & Engelman, Sustaining water, easing scarcity: A second update, Washington, D.C., Population Action International, 1997 (69). Gardner-Outlaw and Engelman base their calculations on UN Population Division population estimates. The growth rate and TFR data come from: Populatoin Reference Bureau, World Population Data Sheet, 1998, Wahsington, D.C., 1998.
http://www.infoforhealth.org/pr/m14/m14table.shtml#top

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